手机买彩票

张辉:疫情的旅游思考

2020-02-17 绿维文旅 标签:冠状病毒

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第三,旅游形态是不同的。2003年,我国的旅游主体是观光旅游,旅游产业链比较单一,基本上是以旅行社为核心的观光旅游。这种单一的旅游形态以及旅游产业链,有两个明显的经济特性,一是旅游形态和产业链单一,旅游经济所涉及的行业相对较少,无非就是航空公司、旅行社、景区和酒店,旅游对社会经济的影响程度不大,恢复起来也比较容易;二是由于旅游形态和产业链单一,市场主体十分明确,政府可以制定有针对性的政策,快速解决旅游企业应对疫情冲击的痛点和难点,政府施救相对容易。不同于2003年,我国的旅游经过十七年的发展,旅游形态日益丰富。旅游已经不是单一的观光旅游形态了,除了传统的观光旅游之外 ,度假旅游、休闲旅游、商务旅游、研学旅游、技术性旅游、养老旅游、体育旅游与观光旅游共同构成了我国的旅游类型体系。我们都知道,旅游需求决定旅游供给,旅游类型决定旅游产业链。当旅游类型扩展时,旅游供给和旅游投资也会随之扩大,旅游产业链和旅游企业组织类型也会随之增多。在多种旅游类型发展阶段下,旅游企业组织形态会更加丰富,更加多样。景区、度假区、民宿、旅游综合体手机买彩票、酒店、旅行社、OTA平台、客运、演艺、旅游基地、代理商、旅游投资公司、旅游设计公司等等,旅游对整个社会经济的行业的渗透和关联能力在不断强化,影响在日益放大。位于不同的产业链的旅游企业,对政府施救的需求是不同的。劳动占有主体的旅游企业期望政府在劳动保障政策方面加大力度,资本占有主体的旅游企业期望政府在金融政策方面有所突破,不同企业的不同需求,加大了政府施救的难度。

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客观来说,本次疫情对旅游业的负面冲击将远远超过了2003年。按照当前抗击疫情战役的情况,如果3月控制住,稳定住,到4月底,全国的旅游市场逐步恢复的乐观估计,旅游业的损失也是巨大的。在不考虑其它因素下,我们可以粗略地作出以下判断;首先是旅游总量,2019年,全国全年旅游收入总量大体为65000亿元人民币,其中包括国内旅游和入境旅游,国内旅游如果5月开始恢复,入境旅游9月开始恢复,考虑到需求时间因素和消费支出因素,全年旅游收入不会超过40000亿元人民币,比2019年旅游收入大体减少24000亿至28000亿元人民币,比2019年会形成35%至40%的负增长;从我国经济发展所处的周期以及旅游市场自然发展规律来看,到2021下半年恢复到2019年规模水平上,旅游业的恢复时间大体需要13个月到15个月左右;其次是旅游市场结构,也就是国内旅游、出境旅游和入境旅游三大市场的恢复,国内旅游特别是短程旅游率先恢复,出境旅游恢复需要一定的时间,入境旅游的恢复需要更长时间;第三是旅游形态,自然类的观光旅游率先启动,文化类、娱乐类和场馆类的观光旅游恢复起来比较缓慢,研学旅游、演艺旅游、邮轮旅游恢复起来的难度较大,持续时间较长。与此同时,度假旅游、自然康养旅游将会有一个大的增长;第四是旅游空间,城市旅游会有一个规模性下降,乡村旅游会有一个大的涨幅,其中乡村民宿旅游恢复较快。从旅游目的地来说,自然地理尺度大的地区如新疆、西藏、青海、内蒙古和疫情不严重的地区如贵州、云南、吉林、宁夏、山西、海南,旅游会有一个大的恢复,甚至会一个大的发展,以武汉为中心的周边地区以及长三角地区旅游恢复较为缓慢;第五是旅游组织方式,团队旅游特别是长线团队旅游恢复需要一定的时间,散客特别以自驾为主的家庭出游方式会有一个大的恢复,长线的旅游包车、旅游专列恢复较为缓慢。

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手机买彩票BIZHERENWEI,ZHENGFUYAOCHONGFENFAHUIDUANQIZHENGCESHIJIUXIAOYING,YINGZHONGDIANKAOLVSANGEWENTI。

1、要从旅游产业链的构成来确定施救行业的重点。旅游产业是以人的空间流动为核心的一个配置性行业,旅游行业是有多种企业组成,旅行社、OTA平台、航空公司、酒店、客运企业、旅游演艺手机买彩票公司、景区、度假区、民宿等,按照不同的旅游形态通过上下游企业的有机组合,形成不同的旅游产业链。处于旅游产业链的核心是旅行社、OTA平台等那些从事客源组织的旅游企业,这些旅游企业是资源和客源的整合者,承担着向产业链不同旅游企业输送客源的职能,是旅游行业恢复及成长的关键性因素。只要这些企业顶住了疫情的冲击,度过了难关,旅游经济的恢复便有了市场基础,处于产业链中的航空公司、酒店、客运企业、旅游演艺公司、景区、度假区、民宿,就有了客源的保证,就有了业务发展的保障。如果这些企业没有顶住疫情的冲击,形成了规模性的破产和倒闭,旅游全行业的恢复便成为一个十分困难的事情。从这个意义上讲,短期政策效应的重心应该放在对这些旅游企业的施救上。

2、ZHENGFUSHIJIUYAOWEIRAOZHELVYOUGONGJICEGAIGEDEMUBIAOJINXING,TUIJINLVYOUXINGYEGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN。YIQINGFASHENGYILAI,BUSHAODELVYOUQIYETONGGUOMEITIFASHENG,QIDAIZHENGFUCHUTAIXIANGYINGZHENGCEJINXINGSHIJIU,BINGCHENGYI、ERGEYUEQIYEJIUNANYISHENGCUNXIAQU。ZAITUFASHIJIANYINGXIANGXIA,YIGEQIYEZAIHENDUANDESHIJIANLIDOUNANYISHENGCUN,ZHEIYANGDEQIYEHAIYOUSHIJIUDEBIYAOMA?CONGDUANQIZHENGCEXIAOYONGLAISHUO,ZHENGFUSHIJIUBUSHIJIUMING,ERSHIBANGKUN,SHIBANGZHUNEIXIEYOUZHILIANG、YOUSHENGMINGLIHEMIANYILIDELVYOUQIYEZOUCHUKUNJING,HUODEGENGDADE、YOUZHILIANGDEFAZHAN。YOUSHENGLIETAISHIJINGJIZUZHIFAZHANDEJIBENSHENGTAIFAZE,SHIYIGELINGYU、YIGEXINGYEGAOZHILIANGFAZHANDEYAOQIU,DUIYIGEYOUZHILIANGDELVYOUQIYELAISHUO,ZAIZHENGCHANGDESHICHANGHUANJINGXIA,YAOJUYOUJINGZHENGLI,ZAIFEIZHENGCHANGDESHICHANGHUANJINGXIA,YAOYOUMIANYILI。RUGUOWOMENDELVYOUXINGYEDUOSHULVYOUQIYEDOUJUBEILEZHEILIANGZHONGNENGLI,LVYOUZHENGGEXINGYEJIUHUIXINGCHENGYIGEGAOZHILIANGDEFAZHANTAISHI。JIUMUQIANWOGUOLVYOUXINGYELAISHUO,TONGSHIJUBEIZHEILIANGZHONGNENGLIDEQIYEHAISHIBUDUO。WOGUOSIWANDUOJIALVXINGSHE,BUSHAODELVXINGSHEYOUDESHIZHANGQIMEIYOUWENDINGDELVYOUYEWU,YOUDESHIMEIYOUSHOUKEQUDAO,YOUDESHITONGGUOBUZHENGDANGYEWUJINGYINGHUODESHENGYI,SHIWOGUOLVYOUSHICHANGLUANXIANGDEGENYUAN,DUIZHEILEILVYOUQIYEBUJINBUNENGSHIJIU,HAIYAOJIEZHUYUZHEICIYIQINGDECHONGJI,SHIZHEIXIEQIYETUICHUSHICHANG,XINGCHENGSHICHANGCHUQING。JIN15NIANLE,WOGUOLVYOUTEBIESHIGUONEILVYOUDECHUJINGLVYOUDEGAOSUFAZHAN,SHICHANGRONGLIANGDECHIXUKUOZHAN,SHIWOGUOLVYOUCHANYEMEIYOUYIGEYOUZHILIANG、YOULIDUDECHANYEDIAOZHENG,ZHEISHIYIGEJIBUZHENGCHANGXIANXIANG。CHANYEGUIMOZAIBUDUANKUODA,CHANYESUZHIZAIBUDUANXIAJIANG,ZHEIZHONGLVYOUFAZHANDEGEJU,BULIYUWOGUOLVYOUCHANYEGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN,ZHEIGEJIELUN,KEYICONGJINNIANLAIRUJINGLVYOUGUOYERENCIYIJIWAIGUORENRUJINGLVYOUSHULIANGZENGZHANGTINGZHIDEDAOYINZHENG。SUOYISHUO,ZHENGFUDUILVYOUQIYEDESHIJIUBUNENGGAO“YIDAOQIE”,YAOGENJULVYOUQIYEGONGXIANDU、YEWUNENGLIYIJISHEHUIZERENJINXINGQUANMIANPINGJIA,FENLEISHIJIU,DUINEIXIEGUOJIJUYOUJINGZHENGLIHEYINGXIANGLIDELVYOUQIYE、LVYOUCHANYELONGTOUQIYE、FUHEWOGUOWEILAIFAZHANFANGXIANGDELVYOUQIYEYIJIDAIBIAOLVYOUXINYETAIDELVYOUQIYEYAOJIADASHIJIULIDU,YIBAOZHENGZHENGFUSHIJIUXIAOGUOFUHEWOGUOLVYOUCHANYEWEILAIFAZHANFANGXIANG。

3、ZHENGFUSHIJIUYAOGENJUBUTONGLVYOUQIYEDECHENGBENJIEGOU,YOUZHENDUIXINGJINXINGZHENGCEXIFEN,GENGDAFAHUIZHENGFUSHIJIUDEXIAOYONG。LVYOUXINGYEZHONGDEBUTONGLVYOUQIYE,YOUYUQIYEWUTEDIANBUTONG,CHENGBENJIEGOUBUTONG,YIQINGXINGCHENGDEKUNNAN,ZAOCHENGDEYINGXIANGYESHIBUYIYANGDE。DUIYUYIGEFUZHAIXIANGDUISHAODELVXINGSHE,JINRONGSHIJIUXIANRANBUSHILEIQIYEDEZHONGDIAN,XIANGFAN,TADUISHEHUIBAOZHANGSHIJIUGENGJIAGUANZHU。ZHIYOUZHENGCEGENJUBUTONGLVYOUQIYEDEJINGYINGZHUANGKUANG、YEWUTEDIANHECHENGBENJIEGOU,YOUZHENDUIXINGZHENGCESHIJIU,CAIHUIJIDADIFAHUIZHENGFUSHIJIUDEZHENGCEXIAOYONG。

第二,要重新考虑未来我国旅游发展的长远目标,下定决心将促进入境旅游发展,作为“十四五”以及更长远时期旅游发展的重心,推动我国旅游产业高质量发展。这次疫情的发生,无论是政府、行业、企业,还是管理者、经营者、学者,都在考虑一个问题,我国旅游发展是不是符合旅游发展的基本规律,我们的市场怎么发展?我们的行业如何发展?同时,摆在我们当前的一个现实问题,疫情过后,旅游市场恢复从何入手,政府政策的发力点放在什么地方? 不可否认的是,旅游市场的恢复必然是从近距离的国内旅游开始,但这是不是我们旅游恢复重心呢?是不是政府发力的重点呢?显然不是,如果我们还是按照传统思路,去恢复旅游市场,按老路子发展旅游产业,那么,这次疫情对旅游的代价也就太大了。疫情的旅游损失,只有通过旅游领域深度改革和开放,才能得到有效的对冲。应该说,从2003年开始到现在,由于中国社会经济的高速发展,人民对非物质性服务产品需求的增加,我国的旅游发展的重心从入境旅游转向了国内旅游和出境旅游,特别是出境旅游的增长速度更是惊人,近15年年均增长速度达到17%,2019年出境旅游高达1.5亿人次,这种发展速度在世界上都是十分罕见的。满足人民日益增长的旅游需求,包括出境旅游需求无可厚非,因为这不仅是市场的选择的结果,也是平衡国际贸易关系的有效方法。然而,对于一个国家来说,发展旅游的重心是入境旅游,而不是出境旅游。促进入境旅游发展是世界上多数国家的旅游基本国策。从2005年起日本提出的观光立国的基本国策,将入境旅游发展作为旅游发展的重中之重,出台了多项政策推动入境旅游发展,这与上世纪80年代,日本在国际贸易顺差影响下,为平衡国际贸易,大力推动出境旅游发展形成了明显的对照。有人说,通过出境旅游的规模化发展,可以进一步扩大中国在国际上的影响力,增强我国在国际社会的话语权。这种认识是存在偏差的。一个国家规模化的出境旅游,只能表现为国际社会对客源国经济的认同,但不并表现对你的文化的认同。而入境旅游规模化的发展,则从一个侧面表现出国际社会对一个国家的文化认同。这次突发的疫情,各国对中国的表现充分说明了这一点。平时,世界各国为了获得你的客源,对中国护照不是免签,就是落地签,提供更多旅游便利化,扩大中国的出境旅游市场,推动本国经济的发展,当你发生疫情时,尽管世界卫生组织不建议对中国实行旅行限制,但多数国家采取了十分严格的入境政策,中断航线、关闭海关,限制中国公民入境。这些国家的做法,从疫情防控,保护本国人民的健康出发,是可以理解的,但有的国家对持有中国护照从国外回中国,在第三国机场转机都不允许,就难以理解了,这与平时对中国护照的态度形成了明显反差。

手机买彩票GUONEILVYOUSHIGUOJIALVYOUFAZHANDEGEN,RUJINGLVYOUSHIGUOJIALVYOUFAZHANDEHUN。FAZHANRUJINGLVYOU,KUODARUJINGLVYOUGUIMO,BUJINKEYIDUICHONGHUOWUMAOYICHUKOUZENGSUXIAJIANGDEYINGXIANG,PINGHENGCHUJINGLVYOUWAIHUISHOUZHI,TISHENGGUOJISHEHUIDUIWOGUOWENHUADERENTONG,GENGZHONGYAODESHI,JIEZHUYURUJINGLVYOUFAZHANDEXUYAO,LAITUIDONGWOGUOLVYOUGENGSHENYIBUDEGAIGEHEGENGJINYIBUDEKAIFANG,TUIJINWOGUOLVYOUGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN。RUGUOWOMENJIANGRUJINGLVYOUZUOWEILVYOUFAZHANDEZHONGXIN,LIYONG10NIANSHIJIANDEYOUXIAODEFAZHAN,SHIZHONGGUOLVYOUCHANYECHENGWEISHIJIEZUIJUJINGZHENGLIDECHANYE,SHIZHONGGUOCHENGWEISHIJIEZUIJUYINGXIANGLIDELVYOUMUDEDIGUOJIA。

促进入境旅游发展,当前要解决两个问题;一是要构建起完整的入境旅游的产业链,二是要完善入境旅游便利化体系;前者是技术性问题,后者是改革开放问题,两者缺一不可。近年来,由于国内旅游和出境旅游需求的快速增长,使我们对入境旅游重视程度大大降低,做入境旅游业务的企业少了,队伍散了,产业链断了。我国每年两次国际旅游交易会,实际上成了国内旅游和出境旅游的交易会,各国来的旅游经营商绝大多数是做中国出境旅游业务的代理商和供应商,很少有做中国入境旅游业务的旅游经营商,这种现象与世界各国的旅游交易会形成显明的对照。世界有竞争力和影响力的大的旅游经营商很少做中国入境旅游业务,中国旅游线路产品和旅游目的地还没有进入世界旅游的前列。我们知道,旅游发展是借助于两类资源的,一个是文化资源,一个是自然资源,从文化资源来说,我国历史悠久,文化灿烂,形态多样,从自然资源来说,我国地理形态和气候类型齐全,拥有的世界文化遗产和自然遗产位居世界第一,丰富的旅游资源可以组合成多种具有吸引力和竞争力的旅游产品,理应成为世界旅游的高地,理应成为世界入境旅游的大国。然而,与丰富旅游资源相对应,我国的入境过夜旅游人次和外国人入境过夜旅游人次,还处在一个比较低的水平上,特别是外国人入境过夜旅游人次低于日本,低于泰国,世界排位10名之后。这是极不正常的现象。

 CUJINRUJINGLVYOUFAZHAN,CHULEGOUJIANWANZHENGDERUJINGLVYOUCHANYELIAN,DALIKAIFAFUHEGUOJILVYOUSHICHANGXUYAODEJINGPINLVYOUXIANLU,GAOPINZHIGUOJILVYOUMUDEDIZHIWAI,WANSHANRUJINGLVYOUBIANLIHUATIXISHIGUANJIAN。DANGQIAN,ZHIYUEWOGUORUJINGLVYOUFAZHANDEZHUYAOSHIBIANLIHUAWENTI,QIANZHENGDEBIANLIHUA、ZHIFUDEBIANLIHUAHEWANGLUODEBIANLIHUA。LVYOUZHUGUANBUMENYAOXIETONGWAIJIAOBUMEN、JINRONGJIGOUHEWANGXINBANYIJIXIANGGUANBUMEN,ZAIBAOZHENGGUOJIAANQUANDEQIANTIXIA,JIUYISHANGSHEJIRUJINGLVYOUDESANGEBIANLIHUAWENTI,TICHUQIESHIKEXINGDEJIEJUEFANGAN。LVYOUZHUGUANBUMENYAOWEIRAOTISHENGRUJINGGUOYELVYOURENCIHEWAIGUORENRUJINGGUOYELVYOURENCIZHEILIANGGEZHUYAOZHIBIAO,ZHIDINGXIANGYINGDECUJINRUJINGLVYOUFAZHANBANFA,GUANLIJIZHIYUGUANLIZHIDU,CONGERTUIDONGWOGUORUJINGLVYOUGUIMOHUAFAZHAN。

第三,下大力气加强旅游的国际与国内推广力度,提升我国旅游的全球吸引力和影响力。这次疫情,对我国旅游是一场危机事件,不能仅靠市场自然力量,来恢复旅游市场,稳定旅游经济,而是按照危机处置机制,从国家层面,加大旅游推广的力度。为此,建议文化和旅游部成立国家旅游推广局,全面负责旅游推广工作。国家旅游推广局可以汇同中国旅游协会、中国旅游集团、大的OTA平台组织、航空公司、全国各省市文化和旅游厅(局)研究国内旅游和入境旅游推广实施方案,在国内和国际上形成一系列的旅游营销活动和旅游推广活动。比如在国际上可以以“认识中国”这个主题为重心,在世界主要旅游客源国实施旅游推广活动,在国内可以“认识祖国”的主题,在全国主要客源地实施国内旅游推广活动。通过国家层面的旅游营销,提升中国旅游的形象和世界影响力。

DISI,YAODIAOZHENGLVYOUGONGJITIXIJIANSHEDEJIBENSILU,YI“+LVYOU”ERBUSHI“LVYOU+”DEFANGSHITUIJINLVYOUGONGJITIXIDEJIANSHE。ZHEICIYIQINGDEFASHENG,DUILVYOUQIYEDECHONGJISHIYANZHONGDE,TEBIESHIDUINEIXIEDANYILVYOUSHICHANGWEIZHUDEQIYEGENGSHIRUCI。LVYOUCHANYEDECUIRUOXINGJUEDINGLEQIYEDETOUZIYUJINGYINGBIXUSHIDUOSHICHANG、DUOLINGYUDEZUHE,BUNENGJIANGQIJINGYINGDEYEWUXIANZHIYUMOUGELINGYUHUOZHEMOUGESHICHANGZHINEI。ZAILVYOULINGYU,CHULESHAOSHULVYOUQIYE,RUJINGQU、JIUDIANZHIWAI,DUOSHULVYOUQIYEZAIQIYEWUFAZHANZHONGBUYINGGAIJINJINXIANYULVYOU,HAIYINGGAIXUNQIUXINDEXIAOFEISHICHANG,LAIZENGQIANGQIYESHICHANGKANGFENGXIANNENGLI。YEJIUSHISHUO,WOGUODELVYOUGONGJITIXIDEJIANSHE,BUYIDANYILVYOUGONGNENGDELVYOU+,ERSHIYIDUOGONGNENGDE“+LVYOU”FANGSHIJINXINGTUIJIN。WENHUA+LVYOU,XIANGCUN+LVYOU,GONGYE+LVYOU,SHANGYE+LVYOU,YILIAO+LVYOU,TIYU+LVYOU,JIANKANG+LVYOU,JIAOYU+LVYOU,ZHEIYANGLVYOUGONGJIJIANSHETUIJINFANGSHI,BUJINKEYISHIXIANXIANGGUANCHANYEYULVYOUXIAOFEIDEYOUJIRONGHE,YEKEZENGQIANGLVYOUQIYEKANGFENGXIANNENGLI。

第五,要重新认识文化与旅游各自的特殊性,推动旅游产业向“大旅游”产业发展。文化和旅游部组建以来,在推动旅游与文化的融合方面有了大的进展,对提升我国旅游产品品质以及我国在世界旅游市场的影响力有着重要作用。文化与旅游融合一个重要影响,就是全国各地对建设有文化目的的旅游体系重视起来了。可以说,文化旅游是国际旅游的重心,世界入境旅游发达的国家都对文化旅游开发与建设高度重视,法国、美国、日本更是如此。应该注意的是,文化与旅游的融合主要表现在文化旅游这个层面上,不应将其无限扩大,用文化旅游来替代旅游的全部。在旅游领域,有一个不好的现象,文旅这个词成了旅游的代表词,一说旅游问题就是文旅问题,甚至将旅游管理、旅游统计和旅游制度,都转成了文旅管理、文旅统计和文旅制度。文化与旅游既有联系,也有不同,文化有文化的规律,旅游有旅游的规律,两者都有事业属性和产业属性,旅游的产业属性更为强烈。从旅游发展规律来说,旅游不仅是文化旅游,体育旅游、度假旅游、研学旅游、康养旅游、技术性旅游、休闲旅游、商业旅游都是重要的旅游形态。如果一味地强调文旅融合,将极大地限制了旅游的发展,限制了旅游与相关产业的融合,其结果使我国旅游走向“小旅游”发展的境地。因此,在未来旅游发展中,我们要尊重旅游发展的基本规律,基本原理,在推动文化与旅游融合的同时,加大旅游与相关产业和领域的融合发展的力度,提升中国旅游服务的能量,提升旅游对我国经济发展的贡献力,对相关产业发展拉动力,对社会发展的影响力。

 


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